CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-03-16T21:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-03-16T21:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/37860/-1
CME Note: The arrival of this CME was not clearly detected at L1. CME Note: Partial halo CME with bulk seen to the north-northeast in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery and more towards the northeast in STEREO A COR2 imagery with faint, very wide shock developing in later frames with invisible leading edge containing lobes to the north and east in both SOHO and STEREO A imagery. The presumed source is an eruption from near the vicinity of Active Region 4032 (N35E35) seen as a dimming in SDO AIA 193 as early as 2025-03-16T18:04Z, disappearing loop structure in SDO AIA 171, and brightening in SDO AIA 304. There are two eruptions seen in GOES SUVI 304 imagery emanating from the same area, one seen at 18:49Z and another which appears more Earth-directed at 20:49Z. Triangulation using SOHO and STEREO A imagery seems to more strongly support Earth-directedness and deflection westward than the EUV imagery.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-03-19T20:30Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Median of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME.Lead Time: 37.68 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-03-18T06:49Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy